What Happened?
Yesterday, July 16th, was the 29th day of Ramadan in the Islamic year 1436, or common era year of 2015. It was a day of great anticipation. Will we see the moon and end the fast or will it go on for another day? This Ramadan started without any contention at all! It was a refreshing respite from all the drama that is usually associated with the starts and stops of the Islamic months due to the confusion about seeing the new crescent moon. But as far as I could tell, the entire Muslim world began fasting on the same day! One week into the month, I started looking forward to the end of the month not to determine the if the moon would be seen or not, but to get a handle on if we would face a chaotic evening of chasing down errant reports all over the world. I researched two primary topics: crescent visibility probability curves and weather history.
The probability curves for July 16th are shown below. How they are generated is a topic on its own and is based on regression models and requires oodles of data from past sightings. The more data you have the more accurate the curves will predict the probability of seeing the new crescent. The curves are broken down into various regions shown by the different colors indicating how easy it will be to see the crescent. Zone A: easily visible to the unaided eye, Zone B: visible under perfect atmospheric conditions, Zone C: visible to the unaided eye after found with optical aide, Zone D: only visible with binoculars or conventional telescopes, Zone E: not visible with conventional telescopes, Zone F: below Danjon Limit (7°). Click on the image for a larger view.
Now before I go on let me qualify something. I started sighting the moon over 20 years ago. I have gone to look for it every month. I have seen many moons. The majority of those 20 years of sighting were made with no prior astronomical or probability prediction knowledge. I would always just based the sighting day 29 days later from the previous day I saw the moon. That is all one needs to know.
However over those years one gets to know what the moon looks like, where it will be in the sky in any given season, what orientation the moon will have and so on. Slowly as crescent moon sighting became more contentious I began to bolster my empirical knowledge with astronomical and probabilistic tools. I also started to teach astronomy, first at the elementary public school level and slowly moving up to higher levels until now at the college level. Now coupling both the 20 years of empirical knowledge and with some science it is not difficult to predict if the crescent will be seen, especially in one’s own locality.
So as I looked into where the moon might be seen yesterday what I noticed was that the best place on the planet was out in the South Pacific. Should not be a problem, no one lives on the water. However South America could have reports. In the last several years we have had some very strange and unverifiable reports coming from the south especially from Chile. But most of South America was in the Zone B, and given perfect atmospheric conditions – meaning the skies needed to be totally clear we very well could receive reports from there. So I looked into the weather history of the region in Chile where we have some contacts that have given us reports in the past.
In the month of July South America is in the midst of winter and in Chile 67% of the month of July is under cloudy and overcast skies. I did not think a report from Chile would come in this year. However, yesterday evening, Chile had clear skies! The interesting result is that Chile had a negative sighting as well as all of South America, except for one report coming out of Bogota, Columbia, and that sighting was with a high-powered telescope.
Why is that important? For one it was made with a telescope and that does not constitute a valid sighting according to Islamic Law. Second it was a high-powered telescope. Why? If you look at the lunar age of the moon in the best location in Zone A it is only 23.11 hours past conjunction. And in Zone B, where the telescope sighting was made it was only 19.03 hours old past conjunction. Conjunction is the instant of the birth of the new moon.
A 23 hour old moon is very difficult to see by the unaided eye, if at all. Here is just such a moon from ten years ago. The Islamic month was Rajab, and it took place on August 5th, 2005, almost ten years ago to the month. Click on the image to see it in full.
Last night, the contentions for the sightings did not come from where we expected them, South America. They cropped up from my own backyard here in the San Francisco Bay Area and a couple other places in California. In California, the age of the moon was roughly 24.8 hours old. Not much older than the moon shown in the photo above. In San Diego, it was 24.35 hours old. In San Francisco, 24.88 hours old. In the middle of the state 24.82 hours old. This time of the year, the orientation of the crescent is as shown in the photo. The limbs should run from about 2:00 to about 7:00 o’Clock on the clock dial. This orientation of the moon’s limbs changes through the seasons. In the summer and winter it is oriented as shown in the photo, with some slight variations, while in the spring the lit portion is on the bottom and the limbs point upwards and in autumn a bit more steeper running from 1 o’Clock to about 6 o’Clock. This is important as we will see below, so keep this in mind.
The sighting curves are based on five parameters that need to be met in order for the moon to be seen easily by the unaided eye. Those parameters are, age of the moon beyond conjunction, the time between sunset and moonset (known as the lag time), the elongation (a geometric orientation of the Earth, Moon and Sun past conjunction), the % illumination of the moon and the altitude of the moon at sunset above the horizon. The criteria for sighting a moon with the unaided eye are as follows:
Age: 18 hours
Lag time: 40 minutes
Elongation: 12°
% Illumination: 1%
Altitude: 5°
Let me further qualify what these values indicate. Neither one is more important than another. The probability of the moon’s visibility cannot be determined by just one or two of these parameters. Each parameter needs to be met. The values given here are the absolute minimum values that are needed for the moon to be seen by the unaided eye. Now just because the age of the moon is greater than the minimum 18 hours will not alone make it visible, especially if for example the lag time is less than the 40 minutes. Likewise, if the moon’s age was, for example, 28 hours old, but the lag time was say 15 minutes or that altitude was only 2°, the moon will still not be seen by the unaided eye, or it will be very difficult at best.
The conditions for the moon shown above from 10 years ago were:
Age: 23.5 hours
Lag time: 46 minutes
Elongation: 11°
% Illumination: 1%
Altitude: 8.1°
With 4 out of the 5 criteria met, and the 5th, elongation, very close, I still could not see this moon with my unaided eyes. How then did I get this photo you ask? I had a general idea of where the moon should have been in the sky and I pointed my camera lens in that area and tripped the shutter. I actually made several photos panning the sky making sure I had sufficient overlap. I was amazingly surprised to have caught the moon in the photo!
Yesterday in the SF Bay Area, in the same location as where the Rajab photo of 2005 was made, the moon had the following conditions:
Age: 24.85 hours
Lag time: 20 minutes
Elongation: 13.3°
% Illumination: 1.3%
Altitude: 3°
Yesterday’s moon only meets 3 out of the 5 criteria. The above pictured moon met 4 out of 5 and was still not visible with the unaided eye. I am not sure how yesterday’s moon was seen. In the areas where the moon was claimed to have been seen, the same 3 out of 5 criteria as well were met.
Here is the interesting result. In Chile, where it could have been seen, the criteria were:
Age: 20 hours
Lag time: 46 minutes
Elongation: 11°
% Illumination: 0.9%
Altitude: 9°
3 of the 5 criteria were met and the other two were very close to meeting the limits, and yet it was not seen!
What is more concerning is that the majority of the reports that we obtained by speaking directly to the claimants, did not describe the moon as the moon seen above in the photo of what a moon of this season and timing should look like. One description given was a line that was flatter, oriented more towards the bottom with limbs more like 4 o’Clock to 7 o’Clock. Two of the reports said that what they saw suddenly became very bright and shiny when they saw it.
All the of the claimants giving reports mentioned that they saw it very shortly after the sun set, within 2 to 7 minutes after sunset. One of the claimants, reported that what he and his group saw appeared before the sun set. Before sun set!
The first question that needs to be asked is does a person engaged in sighting the moon need to versed in astronomy and in particular the details related to the moon? The answer is no. I did not have that knowledge when I first started looking for the moon, but with experience these particulars become second nature. Having knowledge about what the moon looks like in the sky, where in the sky it will appear, and its orientation will serve the seeker in not making erroneous sightings. Any person can become a skilled moonsighter whether they are an upright Muslim or not. The character of an upright Muslim is not a shield that prevents erroneous sightings from being made. At the same time an erroneous sighting made by an upright Muslim does not in any way imply anything about the person’s character. Inexperience and ignorance of the details about the nature of the moon is what brings about the erroneous reports but does not put the person’s character in question.
Moving on, the optimal time of crescent visibility on the evening of a new moon occurs when the the contrast between the moon and the evening sky reaches its maximum. Two things need to happen for this maximum contrast to occur. First, the sky needs to darken and at the same time as the sky darkens, the moon starts to brighten. Maximum contrast takes place at 4/9ths of the lag time. That is, the lag time is taken and divided into 9 parts. Then adding 4 of those parts will indicate when the best viewing time occurs. Last night here in California, with lag times of 20 minutes, 4/9ths amounts to 8 minutes and 53 seconds after sunset. And for an easily seen moon, with a lag time of 40 minutes this amounts to 17 minutes and 45 seconds. So, one would need almost 18 minutes for the moon to reach the optimal contrast in the sky for a moon that is easily seen by the unaided eye. Last night, the moon only had a lag time just slightly longer than the optimal time. Far from ideal. At 2 to 7 minutes after sunset, the sky would be so bright and the crescent so dim, that it is nearly invisible at that time. And before sunset, if the sun itself does not blind the eyes, its brightness will certainly limit anything you can see in the sky near the sun.
We live in a time in which our skies are filled with many flying objects. Objects that did not exist at the time of the Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, and not for more than 1000 years after His time. Those flying objects leave many traces in the sky that can easily be misconstrued as the crescent moon to the inexperienced and unskilled seeker of the moon. Here is a link to a small gallery of photos of just such traces that can easily be mistaken for the moon. And in fact, many times when interviewing claimants, these are the exact items that they describe to us. Here is the link
I do not know what those claimants saw on Thursday evening. I am not accusing anyone of anything. They saw what they saw and they reported it as such. They were honest and sincere, and may they be rewarded accordingly by our Creator.
What concerned me in this whole affair is why were their reports not examined with more scrutiny by those who were charged with making a decision about breaking the fast? There were more details involved than I have mentioned that needed to be addressed. I and another friend working with me did. Before we even had spoken to half those claimants who had a report, the decision to break the fast, based simply on that those reports were made, had already been made by most mosques and organizations. Confusion was rampant all night long.
So what happened last night? I am not entirely sure. I was content and certain the moon had not been seen. My Ramadan did not end last night. I was not even going to voice my concerns as over the years I have learned this only stirs the drama pot and makes things worse. That was until I saw this…
This is, in a sad and hilarious way, what I feel is happening. My pressing question though is, the Minions of Who? Minions of the One Eye, the Nafs…Who?
Later tonight I will be heading out once more to seek out the new moon. I will of course be photographing it and it will, insha Allah (God willing) be posted here on Organic Light Pan.
I wish everyone, and I mean everyone, a most Blessed Eid, filled with love, laughter, family, friends and joy, and may you receive all the rewards of fasting the month of Ramadan. May our Creator forgive us all for our mistakes and trespasses and bring our hearts together in love and brotherhood and sisterhood.
To all, Eid Mubarak and Peace!
Shams on 18 Jul 2015 at 7:58 am #
Thank you Dr. Youssef. I think what most people were confused about was that the decision from CW came before sunset in CA, and then when thee CA reports came in, folks were thrown for a loop…
Ayub on 18 Jul 2015 at 9:17 am #
AA Brother,
This was a great educational article to read, and I admire the peaceful intent with which you presented it. May the Most High reward you. Sounds like we need folks like you with technical knowledge on the boards and committes that scrutinize the claimed sightings so that we remove all possibility of conjecture. You are absolutely right..the burden of ascertaining the veracity of sightings lies on the shoulders of those charged with their acceptance, and conveyance to the community. What happened was that these boards accepted the sightings on the basis of criteria less technical than yours, but they are criteria established by the sunan over the years. Unfortunately, we forget that established criteria from the Noble Prophet’s time wworked very well then since that was a smaller community and much more close knit than ours where the companions and their families as well as ansaarKNEW each other. We live in a society that is constantly in motion with people moving from place to place. Hence we need more expanded criteria. For instance I do not know the sighters from last night. I simply have assume that the council of people accepting their call are being diligent in their scrutiny. Yet if had some persnal knowledge about the sighter, it may be a different perspective….such is not possible in a constantly expanding community spread out so far and wide. Lets hope your article makes us reflect and make appropriate adjustments to our current criteria.
Samina Qazi on 18 Jul 2015 at 9:34 am #
JazakAllah khair brother Youssef for researching this and sharing your findings. Is it possible if we can have a note in future if the moon was really seen or not on your website just before Fajr next day. Then we would know if we should fast or not. What I did was nothing more than blind following blind and would need to make up the fast missed. Thanks again for doing the hard work of research and ijtihad and informing us. May Allah increase us in iman and knowledge and bless us and our families. Aameen. Eid Mubarak!
Youssef Ismail on 18 Jul 2015 at 2:08 pm #
Yes CW made the initial announcement because we had not received any reports from points East or South of the Continental U.S. according to the global position CW is using right now. CW was just as surprised and confused as everyone else. Thank you for the comment.
Youssef Ismail on 18 Jul 2015 at 2:15 pm #
Jazaka Allahu Khairan Ayub. You are correct, our criteria needs updating for our time and place but without losing the spirit of the Sunnah established by The Most Beloved, peace be upon him.
Youssef Ismail on 18 Jul 2015 at 2:22 pm #
We try our best to update the Crescent Watch website the evening of sighting. I help making the decision. So check there for information insha Allah.
Shahnewaz Siddique on 18 Jul 2015 at 9:56 pm #
I think CW should have waited for after sunset in California before posting the decision. Also the reports from California should have undergone greater scrutiny. Seems like the final decision makers are not up to handling the pressure or burden.
Finally there was this photo using binoculars from Chile taken on Thursday night.
http://www.moonsighting.com/moonphotos/only/1436shw20150716chile-1.jpg
Youssef Ismail on 18 Jul 2015 at 10:12 pm #
CW, which I am a part of and help in fielding reports and interviewing claimants, made our initial decision and announcement just after sunset on the 16th. We had no sightings. Then suddenly about 1 hour afterwards, we hear of the flurry of California sightings which took us until 1 am to verify what was seen, and make the second announcement. Its not that we are not capable of handling the pressure or burden, its that we have a leadership that errantly accepts claims without verifying. We scrutinize every claim we come across at CW, but others do not and that is why we find ourselves in this mess each and every Eid.
Shahnewaz Siddique on 18 Jul 2015 at 10:16 pm #
I was talking about the leadership. :). Its seems the leadership was unable to handle the pressure of requiring the community to fast another day so they accepted the claims without thorough verification IMHO.
Youssef Ismail on 18 Jul 2015 at 10:38 pm #
So how can we get the leadership to take more responsibility and fulfill their obligations of leading us? Do we remove them for leadership and elect better leaders? Do we scrutinize the leaders and hold them responsible for not doing a better job? I am not sure, but something needs to be done to change it. Jazaka Allahu Khairan for your concern.
Shahnewaz Siddique on 18 Jul 2015 at 11:21 pm #
I think we must try to understand the overall situation. Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries had declared Eid on Friday. All the masjids I know in the East coast subsequently declared Eid on Friday. From my travels on the East coast, I found people just follow the directions of their local mosque. So in a situation where most of the community is celebrating Eid on Friday, the Bay area leadership has the (un)pleasant task of asking the community to fast another day. I think the question for the individual then becomes, do we follow the wider community in their wrong decision or do we individually (on our own accord) follow the correct way of moon sighting ? The latter option is very difficult because one then becomes separate from the community and most people cannot survive in this state. The strongest people such as Ibrahim (AS) can but most can’t.
For the masjid leadership the question is whether they have the patience and can they bear the pressure/burden that comes with making a decision that requires fasting an extra day and celebrating Eid separate from the wider community ? or is this even necessary and important ? Sticking with the wider community is so much more easier. People have tons of other worries to deal with such as steady jobs, adequate housing, money for retirement, providing for poorer relatives, providing for and raising their kids as best possible etc.
Anyways sorry for the long post, I am also trying to understand the overall situation. I am a lover of astronomy myself which began with moon sighting. Thanks for the great work brother Youssef. Rest assured there are many who appreciate the work you are doing.
Muadh Khan on 19 Jul 2015 at 5:36 am #
Asslamo Allaikum,
I am doing some research on this topic so if you can drop me a line on my email that will be most appreciated.
Jzk
Jasmine on 19 Jul 2015 at 9:23 am #
Assalamualaikum wa Rahmatullahi wa Baraktuh,
Just for information, both the Toronto Hilal Committee and the Toronto Crescent Committee declared Eid on Saturday after 30 days of fasting. Although it was different than the wider community, many of us were thankful due to their scrupulousness even though other people nearby were celebrating Eid.
It actually gives us more confidence to follow them again next year.
JazzakumAllahu khairun for your articles Professor Ismail.
Gary Shircliff ibn Yusuf on 19 Jul 2015 at 10:59 am #
Thank you brother for sharing your knowledge. I have enjoyed sighting and photographing the hilal for about 8 years now. On Thurs night here in Birmingham AL the charts called for a 17 minute lag time. I knew that would be nearly impossible to see, but I did my diligence and went out any way. A cloudy horizon complicated matters further so I packed it in. Friday night was clear and I got great photos. I would love to be included among your collaborators. My photos have been accepted and responded to by other watchers. I would be honored to share them with you. Shukron…….Yusuf
Gary Shircliff ibn Yusuf on 19 Jul 2015 at 11:07 am #
Salaam again brother. I have some fiqh questions. It seems to me that the sahaba did not concern themselves with other nearby regions when they could not sight the moon on the 29th evening of Shaban because of overcast conditions. They just counted 30 days and began the fast accordingly, yes? Did they dispatch people to other regions to ask if they sighted the hilal? Finally, if they did not then why should some one like me in Birmingham Alabama care about a sighting in South America. My understanding is that the sighting is truly a local matter. PLEASE correct me if I am wrong. Jazakallh khair……..Yusuf
Youssef Ismail on 19 Jul 2015 at 11:09 am #
Jazaka Allahu Khairan Yusuf. Please go on to the Crescent Watch website (crescentwatch.org) and register as a contributor. You then can post your reports and share your photos.
Youssef Ismail on 19 Jul 2015 at 11:30 am #
Yusuf, you are correct. Sighting the moon is truly a local matter. We have been trying to rope in the idea of global sighting and bring it back to a more local region, say like to just continental U.S. for those of us here in the U.S.
Abul Hasan Syed Ali on 19 Jul 2015 at 4:06 pm #
In response to#10 comment I would love to see a country wide Central Organization which inclscholars of Astronomy like yourself & Traditiona Fiqh Scholars of all four Major Schools not the so called”Fiqh Council. This Organization should be charged with responsibility of establishing & strictly observing & implementing the criteria & declaring the beginning & end of Ramadan & The Day of Eidul Adha which another divisive event in the Muslim Communities. Publishing of Educational & Informativematerial from time to time may also help to dispel some long held “Myths”.
May Allah Bless & Recompense you immensely for efforts.
Suheil on 19 Jul 2015 at 5:40 pm #
Assalamualaukum,
there were reports of moon being sighted in Indonesia and Eid was declared there and in Malaysia, Singapore(these 3 countries follow calculations, I believe). However, Brunei completed 30 fasts.
From your article and map, looks like that it was a false sighting. Do you have any input on this?
Nadr on 19 Jul 2015 at 9:32 pm #
Assalamu alaikum,
Thank you for the interesting article. I have seen the website moonsighting.com and I suspect you are aware of it. The propose using astronomical calculations to determine the day of Eid as opposed to your philosophy and claim the support of Quran and tradition as stated here (along with other support):
Allah (swt) commands us in Qur’an 2:185, “Yas’aloonaka ‘unil aillah qul hiya mawqeetu linnnasi wal-hajj”. They ask you about the increasing and decreasing phases of the moon; tell them they are dates for mankind and for determining hajj. This verse commands us to observe the phases of the moon, not just the new moon. Neither Rasool(s.a.w) nor the Sahabas went on the eve of the Eid trying to look for the Crescent moon, they abided by Allah (swt) and were observing the phases of the moon every day because they clearly understood the commandments of Allah. By observing the moon and seeing the full moon day they knew which month would have 29 days or 30 days. Why we do not have any history of Rasool (s.a.w) or the Sahabas sitting for I’tikaf for 11 days or 9 days – whether the month had 29 days or 30 days they began their I’tikaf and sat exactly 10 days; they never had any confusion in this matter.
There are also other explanations. The above quote is from here:
http://www.moonsighting.com/hijri-calendar.html#mess
I am wondering if you have any comment about their use of religious support for their claims. With both sides claiming Qur’anic and Hadith support, how can we ever come to an agreement?
Salaam,
Nadr
Shad Ahmad on 19 Jul 2015 at 11:58 pm #
Br. Youssef,
Eid Mubarak!
JazakAllah khair for this detailed analysis.
I was also surprised by the late evening change. However, not being an expert in fiqh nor astronomy, for start and end of Ramadan, I have chosen to follow the majority of local masjids that have alims affiliated with Northern California Shura Council. They claim to base their declaration on moon-sighting (Ruayateh) information and verification as per the shariah.
We love the apt minion cartoon!
Once again, thank you for your persistence and not being amongst the Al Saud minions 😉
Youssef Ismail on 20 Jul 2015 at 12:07 am #
Hahaha!
Youssef Ismail on 20 Jul 2015 at 12:12 am #
I do not know what the governments in those three countries employ to determine the beginnings of the lunar months. If you did not fast on Friday, then I would suggest making up the missed day of fasting.
Peace.
Azhar Khan on 20 Jul 2015 at 9:21 am #
Please inbox me any further details of any investigation as people are requesting for clarification. We did Eid on Saturday July 18th.
Shah on 20 Jul 2015 at 9:47 am #
For those of us in the Bay area, I think we should discuss with the leadership at SBIA, ISEB, ICF etc. They stated they would follow naked eye crescent sighting, now they need to carry through on their commitment, accurately verify the reports and soak up the pressure of a negative ruling. On the other hand if they want to stick to the wider community then they should state so and follow ISNA or Saudi Arabia, which I believe is what most masjids are doing.
Alhamdulillah due to the efforts of the last few years, of which this website and CW was a big part, quite a few people are aware of the intricacies of sighting the new crescent.
HabulRahman on 20 Jul 2015 at 9:59 am #
Assalaamu Alaikum Bro Youssef and Eid Mubarak to you and your family. First Alhamdu Lillah wallahu Akbar.
I must commend you for your invaluable article and removing the doubts that were in my mind and I suspect many other Muslims as well. May Allah reward your efforts with Jannatul Firdous as well as your family.
I was referred to your article by my beloved brother in Deen and now I have marked it for future referral for all the months not only Ramadhan. Once again Jazaakumullah Khairan
Farooqi on 20 Jul 2015 at 11:51 am #
There’s a crisis of authority because the leaders of this Ummah cannot come to agreement on a single thing. You may tell me that in “classical times,” there was agreement but things have truly changed. Things that weren’t true 100 years ago:
1) The diversity of the Islamic communities in the West is truly something new. Never before have you had a melting pot of madhabs and offshoots in one single place.
2) Preponderance of technology – the ability to communicate in seconds across the world is new. Now, we know when Eid is in Saudi Arabia as it happens.
3) Lack of centralized leadership in the Muslim world. Who are our leaders? The Ulema themselves can’t agree. When there isn’t consensus amongst the scholars, what of the followers? This issue is even more pressing in the West. Who is your leader? ISNA? ICNA? Zaytuna? FCNA? MAS? Good luck with that.
4) Geopolitical borders – do Muslims in the US follow the Canadians? Cost Ricans? Colombians? Australians? Where do you draw the line? Do you go back to “local” sightings? In the face of this mountain of communication, parochialism and lack of leadership, how do you envision that happening?
I think people should stop losing sleep over this. Muslim ulema were initially opposed to the microphone in South Asia, then the TV then the Internet. Like it or not, the ground has shifted and scholarship – though adequately equipped to do so – has failed to provide leadership.
In that white space, we will continue to have two Eids for the foreseeable future. We can certainly lament the loss of something but we should also trust God. The “minions” will have their opinions but the real issue lies at the feet of our scholars / leaders who have given us no choice.
Nishat on 20 Jul 2015 at 4:17 pm #
I am a great proponent of local moonsighting. The problem is even if everyone agreed on no moon sighted in the US on Thursday night, how do we deal with 80% of the Masjids following global moonsighting and proceeding with Eid anyway ?
Youssef Ismail on 20 Jul 2015 at 7:51 pm #
Farooqi,
Thank you for your analysis. It is always a needed first step to solving a problem. What we need now are some proposed solutions. If the problem seems to revolve around ignorance, the one proposed solution is education. And no one will go get educated until they can recognize their own ignorance in a matter. So how do we get those in charge to take the first steps to become educated in all the aspects of moon sighting?
Youssef Ismail on 20 Jul 2015 at 7:58 pm #
Again, Nishat, as I pointed out to Farooqi, it has to do with education. Sheikh Hamza in his article spoke of Fast-Islam. Muslims have become complacent in the deen with regards to matters that demand attention, scrutiny and patience. Its just too much work carrying out the due diligence needed to ensure the timings of fasting and eid, to much work ensuring prayer times are correct, to much work keeping track of one’s wealth to pay zakat on it etc. Global moonsighting has already been agreed upon by all the madhahibs that it is just impractical in our time. Its too bad the ignorance of how to acertain times is so rampant among our scholars and leadership who are charged with making decisions for the rest of us. My big question – how do we get our leadership to recognize and admit this ignorance and how do we get them educated?
Shad on 20 Jul 2015 at 8:02 pm #
SAK Br. Shah and Youssef
On Friday AM, in the SF Bay Area, I spoke with a scholar, who I respect, and is thoroughly trained in traditional Islam in South Africa, Madinah shareef, Pakistan and USA and holds an advanced degree in fiqh. He personally vouched for some of the folks from amongst the 10+ individuals who saw the moon from Mt. Tamalpais.
It appears, there was real confusion at cosmic scale – the folks did not fake the sightings deliberately. Their shahadat was verified then accepted by N CAL SHUARA COUNCIL and the Chicago Shariah Board. Allah hu alam!
Youssef Ismail on 20 Jul 2015 at 9:23 pm #
Wa ‘Alaikum Assalam Shad,
There is no contention on my part, or by anyone, about the brothers / sisters who gave testimony about what they saw on Mt. Tam. In fact when we spoke to one of the brothers there, we knew him personally, we found him to be a sincere upright brother. The question is the following:
Which of these two scenarios is really more probable:
1. A sincere, educated, upright Muslim who hopes Eid is tomorrow excitedly mistakes a distant, faint object in the sky for the new moon…
OR…
2.That same Muslim is chosen by Allah for a miraculous, world-record sighting of the moon that flummoxes astronomers and moon-sighters everywhere and astoundingly defies millennia of precise compiled human knowledge of the movement, location, appearance, and visibility of the new moon.
Oddly, we have a lot of people swearing by #2 and refusing to even consider #1.
The astronomy on Thursday evening had placed the moon in such a condition that there simply was not enough light reflecting off the moon that it could be seen here in the United States, it was below the Danjon limit of 7°. What do we do in a case like this where the moon just physically cannot be seen and yet upright Muslims swear to have seen it? Could the possibility of seeing something else in the sky that looked like the moon was seen? Could it have been a contrail? A cloud? This link shows some of the things in the past that could have been mistaken as the moon.
I do not know for sure what they saw on Mt. Tam. I am not denying that they saw something. I am not challenging their characters or their testimonies. Its just what they saw was not the moon. I applaud their efforts to keep the sunnah alive and I encourage them to continue in the following months. I encourage everyone to go out and look. The reward for keeping this sunnah alive is with Allah, whether the moon was seen or not, the reward does not depend on seeing the moon, but only on the effort for seeking it out.
Ayyaz Yousaf on 20 Jul 2015 at 11:43 pm #
Assalamu Alykum brother Youssef. JazakAllahu Khairan for your efforts. A major part of our decision at IECRC to celebrate Eid on Saturday was based on your moon sighting evaluations at CW and I am Alhamdulillah satisfied with that decision.
Ayman Al-Layla on 21 Jul 2015 at 4:55 am #
Thanks Brother for your nice informative article,
Just to comment on what you stated as “For one it was made with a telescope and that does not constitute a valid sighting according to Islamic Law”.
Actually, If it made by telescope most of the islamic councils considered it as a valid sighting … and you can check the Fatwas of:
– International Islamic Fiqh Academy
– European Council for Fatwa and Research
and the – Dar al-Ifta al-Misriyyah which belongs to Azhar Academy.
Eid Mubarak
Youssef Ismail on 21 Jul 2015 at 10:52 am #
The Shari’ah does not impose upon people what they cannot do in order to fulfill the obligation placed upon them. Thus the stipulation of seeing the moon with the unaided eye. While seeing the moon with a telescope might constitute a sighting, it will only be binding upon the person who had the means to see it through the telescope. Otherwise it would become a necessity for every Muslim to own a telescope. That would be impossible as not every Muslim could afford a telescope. Stipulation of the unaided eye makes sighting the moon attainable by every Muslim who has eyes that function properly. It is not a burden to have or obtain eyes, we a born with them. If one’s eyes do not function properly, then they will have to rely on those who can see. The overwhelming majority of people on the earth can see just fine with their eyes without the need of any optical aid. Accepting sightings based on optical aid, will either force ordinary Muslims to be burdened to own a telescope or fall into doubt when they cannot see the moon with their own eyes. Thus we leave what brings about doubt for what brings about certainty. Waiting so that the moon can be see with the unaided eye brings about certainty.
Taalib Abu Hamzan on 21 Jul 2015 at 1:42 pm #
As-Salaamu Alaykum,
As another long term companion of the moon, I found your article very informative. We invite you to join us on our Facebook page Initiative for Hijra Calendar Awareness. I feel that your contributions will be extremely beneficial. My dear friend Imam Dawood Yasin recently mentioned you and your work to me. May Allah continue to bless you on this journey.
was salaam
Taalib
Sulayman on 21 Jul 2015 at 2:49 pm #
Not only would not everyone be able to afford a telescope, but on some occasions onlythe richest people with the most expensive telescopes would be able to see the moon. WIth CCD imaging, the techology is now getting absurd. What is the big deal? Why can’t Muslims just wait to see the moon with their natural faculties? Sabr, sabr, sabr….
Syed Rasheeduddin Ahmed on 21 Jul 2015 at 6:48 pm #
Assalam O Alaikum Dr. Yousuf,
It was very informative article full of scientific facts. I congratulate you for that.
I suggest you should be going to all Masajid explaining the scientific criteria with following the Hadith of seeing the moon. In other world educating ulema such as Chicago Hilal committee who make us lose one fasting day.
Like I do I visited Masajid from coast to coast to educate Muslims about Halal foods in U.S. Supermarkets. I am a senior food scientist with over 35 years of US food industry and educating Muslims about Halal Foods since 1985. My website logged in 180 countries and have 4000 visitor every day. This is due to Allah’ favor for giving me education, knowledge and experience about Halal foods so that I can spread to all Muslims. I also consult with 3 ulema for their sharia support.
We should publicized your website so many Muslims follows you.
Nadr on 21 Jul 2015 at 10:08 pm #
Assalamu alaikum Br Youseff,
I see that you have responded to every post here except mine (#20). I am interested in your thoughts on my post. If you feel it is not worthy or inappropriate, please let me know.
Salaam,
Nadr
Shad on 21 Jul 2015 at 10:09 pm #
SAK Br. Youssef
As an engineer, #1 is the obvious one. I am perplexed why well meaning folks readily accepted #2.
We don’t have choices in the South Bay to correctly perform communal obligations like Eid salaat on our own.
Next Eid in September and onwards we’ll Inshallah go up to Zaytuna Institute.
Dr Khurram Hassan on 22 Jul 2015 at 1:11 am #
Assalaamu alaykum wa rahmatullahi wa barakatuhu,
As point of introduction, and allah knows my true worth. I’m a Londoner, student of sh hamza from the rihlas, medically trained doctor then specialist, amateur astronomer and for the last 7 years have been studying fulltime the Islamic sciences in the middle East- about to graduate from a masters type program after arabic and then the equivalent of undergraduate islamic studies.
My astronomical studies where very part time in short courses run in London and then faqih trained astronomers in the arab world.
I thank shaykh Hamza for introducing me to you via his blog.
Please may we be in private correspondence- away from the eyes of the WWW. I have serious concerns about the empirical basis of the “Method for Predicting the First Sighting of the New Crescent Moon” commonly known as visibility curves for the sighting of the new moon.
They are based upon limited data observations (252) and
furthermore do not taken into account local altitude.
I hope you can reconcile my issues.
Please email me at abusalma@gmail.com or khurramhassan@doctors.org.uk
or perhaps we can speak via phone or even whatsapp call.
My local telephone number is +967733302636.
with du’a
Khurram
Victor Nasser on 22 Jul 2015 at 5:42 am #
Assalamu ‘alaykum wa rahmatullahi wa barakatuh,
Dear brother Youssef, first of all, thank you for taking the time to write this article which would definitely benefit the English speaking ummah. May Allah reward you.
I’m one of the four members of the local crescent committee from CEI Al-Qurtubi who witnessed the crescent moon in Bogota, Colombia (with a telescope as mentioned in your article). We have been making this effort for the past three years and it was until 6:33 p.m. of July 16 that we see a crescent for the first time Alhamdulillah. Every since this day, and especially after seeing the differences of opinion that emerged based on the sightings reported, I have not stopped reading all kind of articles in regards to them (which have been helpful Alhamdulillah). I am now reading the ones shared by shaykh Hamza Yusuf’s fb page (may Allah preserve him). This is how I found yours.
As a student of the basic sciences of our Deen (in Spanish and English at an elementary level for myself), we also learn logic; an undeniable science of our tradition. And it is here were I personally have some questions which I asked my local imam (and got his answers, may Allah preserve him), but that I would also like to ask you since you’re on topic. With this, I only intend to enrich my understanding of this broad ocean of knowledge we call Islam.
Do you think that if a telescope was available at the time of Rasool (SAWS), would he have used it to find the crescent? Or even more basic, would he (SAWS) have used reading glasses to read the Qur’an? And if we apply the logic of not taking accounts based on optical aid [(telescope) as the moon should be seen with the naked eye according to the most conservative and traditional view], does this mean studying the Qur’an with optical aid (glasses) wouldn’t be valid for such person or even for others who take Quranic knowledge from such person?
Note: I make this analogy based on the fact that reading our Book is an act of obedience and worship just as making the effort of finding the crescent is.
And to finalize, should accounts of brothers and sisters seeing the crescent with glasses be considered (as this shouldn’t be considered “naked eye”)?
Thank you in advance for taking the time to read this note and respond to it if possible. I pray to Allah that success and perseverance continue to be granted to the Zaytuna project and all those involved in it. Amin!
Barakallah feek.
Victor.
Justin Ducote on 22 Jul 2015 at 2:12 pm #
al-salam `alaykum
The use of probability curves certainly makes for some strange bedfellows.
Advocates of calculation might say the need to sight the new crescent moon has been removed by the definitive ability to accurately predict where it will be.
A surprising inversion of that same argument by (us) moon sighters could be written to say the need to sight the new crescent moon has been removed by the definitive ability to accurately predict where it will NOT be.
What incentive is there to go SERIOUSLY looking if we have already established, a priori, there will not be any SERIOUS reciprocity in the consideration of such a report as per what the good Doctor wrote:
I do not know for sure what they saw on Mt. Tam. I am not
denying that they saw something. I am not challenging
their characters or their testimonies. Its just what they
saw was not the moon.
If we already know the impact of a particular sighting effort to be futile then why spend the time, money, and effort to fill up the gas tank, drive out of town, climb the mountain, break out the ephemerides, and really focus instead of just making a half-hearted attempt from the driveway ?
Youssef Ismail on 23 Jul 2015 at 12:38 am #
Sulayman,
You hit the nail square on the head. It is all about Sabr. Patience is such an important facet of Islam that I think escapes us all at some level. Ramadan teaches us Patience. Moon sighting teaches us Patience. Patience is noting more than moving at the speed of Time, and Time is in the hand of Allah. Thus Patience is living life in accordance with the will of Allah. I marvel in shock at how quickly we sometimes try to circumvent the decree of Allah.
Jazaka Allahu Khairan.
Youssef Ismail on 23 Jul 2015 at 12:40 am #
Assalamu ‘Alaikum Syed,
Jazaka Allahu Khairan for contacting me. Aside from the moon, food has been one of my biggest concerns for a very long time. I hope that we can get as large a reach as you have masha Allah regarding the moon as you have regarding halal food. May Allah grant us all taufeeq in preserving His deen.
Wassalam
Youssef
Youssef Ismail on 23 Jul 2015 at 12:56 am #
Assalamu ‘Alaikum Nadr,
Forgive me for not giving you a reply. Its just that I do not know how to reply to it. I also have chosen not to comment regarding any material on the website you mention. I have my reasons and they are personal and I do not wish to share them.
Regarding the Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, and his companions, they were guided directly by Allah. They knew, especially the Prophet, peace be upon him, what we can never know. I believe they never had a problem with timing because they were fully immersed in the creation, fully witnessing Allah through His signs in the creation and were completely integrated into the creation. Much like a bird knows when to start singing in the morning, or a rooster crowing at the first instances of Fajr etc… they knew the time because they just did.
We are so disconnected from the creation that most Muslims, especially those living deep in modernity, don’t even know where the sun rises and sets, let alone where the moon rises and sets. The majority of Muslims today cannot tell you what time prayer comes in if they do not have their prayer timers on their smartphones. Could not tell you which direction is the Qiblah without that on their smartphones etc… I have seen the Adhan being called for Maghrib while the sun was still above the horizon just because the prayer schedule on the masjid wall said it was time and the clock on the wall said it was time!
We are not supposed to be this ignorant of the creation of Allah, especially when Allah Himself in the Quran commands us to look out onto the horizon and within ourselves and we would see the signs that would point us back to Allah subhanahu wa ta’ala.
Youssef Ismail on 23 Jul 2015 at 1:12 am #
Assalamu ‘Alaikum Shad,
You know Crescent Watch is a body of individuals charged with accepting reports on moon sighting and making informed educated decisions on whether the moon has been authentically see or not. Many organizations around the country follow the conclusions determined by those involved at Crescent Watch, may Allah protect them and keep them careful in what they do. Zaytuna Institute, which is actually no longer an existing organization, was instrumental in establishing Crescent Watch. However, Zaytuna College did not hold an Eid prayer this year, and nor has it in any prior year, to the best of my knowledge. Hopefully more and more organizations will start to accept the conclusions of Crescent Watch in the future and provide venues for those of us who follow moonsighting to pray together as a community.
And yes, #1 is the obvious choice. I do not exclude #2 from occurring, as Allah, Subhanahu wa ta’ala, is Qaadir over all things. But why would Allah create a universe and place in it very consistent laws and patterns and ask us to look for them, and then continually confound us with miracles? We do believe in miracles, and they do happen. All the Messengers and Prophets, peace be upon them all, were given miracles, and we accept all of them. Miracles also came to the Awliya of this Ummah. But the miracles that came with did not confound the Muslims, they came to confound the disbelievers. One of the miracles of Allah is how perfect he created this universe, that we can actually empirically recognize the patterns, and then using our intellects model them mathematically and that we can actually predict when something like an eclipse or an astronomical new moon is born. We can even know where the moon is exactly in the sky even before we can see it with our eyes. Its also a miracle that we can exercise the patience needed to wait to see that same new moon with our own eyes rather than rushing to announce its arrival based on prediction alone and boasting about how we did that!
Youssef Ismail on 23 Jul 2015 at 1:13 am #
Assalamu ‘Alaikum Dr. Khurram,
Jazaka Allahu Khairan for commenting. I will take this up with out offline insha Allah. Please look for an email soon.
Wassalam
Youssef
Youssef Ismail on 23 Jul 2015 at 1:29 am #
Assalamu ‘Alaikum Victor,
Thank you for visiting my blog and commenting. I encourage you to visit the full Organic Light Photography website as well. I think you will find it a pleasant time.
You bring up an interesting question. I for one, in the last several years, have needed to rely on reading glasses to read material up close. Fortunately, and may Allah preserve my eyes, have not needed to rely on glasses for seeing things at far distances. Without glasses know I could not “read” the Quran. I am not, unfortunately, a Hafith of the Quran. Yet at the same time the Quran, at the time of the Prophet, peace be upon him, was not a written book. It was a recitation. It was given the the Prophet, peace be upon him, and he would recite it to his companions, may Allah be pleased with them, and he would also recite it to the Angel Jibreel, as a means of making sure it was correct. We do not need to read the Quran to memorize it, and once memorized and practiced by regularly reciting over and over, we would not need to read it with glasses. What of the blind? They know the Quran and have never been able to see it. Do they get any less reward for reciting it rather than reading it?
Would the Prophet, peace be upon him, have used a telescope to see the moon if it existed in his, peace be upon him, time? My gut tells me no. Tables existed in his time, and yet he, peace be upon him, ate sitting on the floor. Spoons existed in his time and yet he, peace be upon him, ate with his fingers. Beds with mattresses existed in his time, yet he, peace be upon him, slept on a simple grass mat on the floor. He, peace be upon him, did what was best and if someone did something that he, peace be upon him, did not find fault in he would not comment on it. If he, peace be upon him, found merit in something he would do it or commend it. So honestly I don’t know. My gut tells me that he probably would not have used a telescope. But only Allah knows.
Regarding glasses used in sighting the moon, those wearing glasses are doing so for corrective measures that bring their eyesight back to what is considered normal vision, not super vision like that obtained from a telescope or a pair of binoculars.
Jazaka Allahu Khairan.
Youssef
Youssef Ismail on 23 Jul 2015 at 2:33 am #
Assalamu ‘Alaikum Justin,
Well, life makes for strange bedfellows 🙂
But seriously there is a big distinction between using calculations for the start of the Islamic months and using the probability curves for not accepting a sighting. First let us understand the difference between calculations and probability curves.
When we say calculations, what we mean is that the astronomical position of the moon is determined via closed form mathematical equations. Those equations are very accurate and with today’s computing power we can determine the position of the moon, sun, stars, planets to fractions of a second. No professional astronomer worth their salt questions these calculations anymore. In fact, Muslim astronomers of the 9th through 11th centuries were among the first to come up with the very equations and methods used to determine the positions of the heavenly bodies. The accuracy was not anywhere near what it is today, but their legacy lives on today.
Those using calculations in place of the actual sighting are doing so for reasons of convenience. The criteria used in determining when the month starts is quite random and tends to change from year to year. You need only look at the track record of the past to see this to be true.
When we talk about the visibility curves we also need to understand what those curves inform us and how they are generated. By the 12th and 13th centuries, the Muslim astronomers had become so proficient in tracking the moon that they kept impeccable records. They would log the location of where the moon sighting occurred, when it occurred. The position of the new moon in the sky, its orientation, its illumination, its age past conjunction (that is the point in time when the new moon occurred, at least to the best they were able to calculate), even if the moon was not seen. Not only that, but information on the person sighting was also recorded. These records were preserved in the Ottoman archives. As the Muslim era waned, so to did the prowess of the Muslim astronomers. The knowledge they amassed, slowly made its way over to Christian Europe and they ran with it at full speed. In the 1990s Bernard Yallop from the HM Nautical Almanac Office developed a method to determine the Probability of the new crescent moon being seen on any given date in any given location on the planet. His method is based on a regression model which predicts future probability based on past data. Regression models fitting data are not new to the scientific world. Regression models are consistently used to fit predictive curves to data obtained from experiments so that the phenomenon studied can be further predicted without having to preform additional experiments. If you are interested in reading his paper describing the method you can find it here. The corner piece of his method relied on data that was obtained from the 19th century from Ottoman records as well as records fro mthe 20th century, 295 individual moon sighting records to be exact. That would be approximately 24.5 years worth of data if those 295 records occurred sequentially.
The data as he found out was best matched with parabolic curves that wrapped themselves around the surface of the Earth. Thus, the distinct sideways parabolic shape the curves have on the maps that show up on all the various websites. The information that they relate is simply whether or not there is a probability of the moon being seen at a given location on a given day. The higher the probability, the easier it can be seen. He set forth different regions such as easily visible to the unaided eye, visble to the unaided eye under perfect sky conditions, visible to the eye after finding it with an optical aid, visible only with an optical aid, not visble with an optical aid and not visible – below the Danjon limit. Two things are first questioned here, what is the Danjon Limit and what are perfect sky conditions.
The Danjon Limit is a physical parameter that relates the configuration of the Earth-Sun-Moon past conjunction where there is physically not enough light reflecting off the moon’s surface that it could even be seen here on Earth. You can search this term on the Internet and find more information on it. The important point is that if a location on Earth is such that the moon’s configuration with the Earth and Sun is such that it is below the Danjon limit, it means the moon cannot be physically seen at all because not enough light is reflecting off the moon to the Earth. No astronomer contends this.
Second what do perfect sky conditions mean? There are too many parameters that need to be met to define this. Temperature, atmospheric pressure, humidity, elevation, sky cover, i.e. clouds, and pollution all have to be taken in to consideration when defining perfect sky conditions. Atmospheric science is one of the most difficult fields to work in, because it is nearly impossible to predict the sky conditions at any given location on any given day, let alone any given hour. Atmospheric scientists develop models that try to predict if the sky will be clear or not, raining or not etc… However, their models are also based on historical data. When the weather report gives a percent chance of rain on any given day, for example, they try their best to predict what conditions will occur, like temperature, humidity and pressure, and then based on those conditions, they will reference decades of historical weather data and come up with the best prediction that they can that matches the current conditions with those of the past and then report what happened in the past with those similar conditions for a prediction now. So this science is far from exact unlike it is for the position of the moon in the sky.
Regarding new crescent moon visibility the U.S. Naval Observatory said that “Although the date and time of each New Moon can be computed exactly, the visibility of the lunar crescent as a function of the Moon’s “age”—the time counted from New Moon—depends upon many factors and cannot be predicted with certainty.” You can read it directly here. The key word is Certainty. We need certainty in what we are doing when it comes to worship. If we do not have certainty that the month has started, then if it was Ramadan we do not start fasting. If it was Shawwal, then we do not stop fasting until we have certainty.
Next, the visibility curves do not in any way negate the rewards for going out on the 29th day of the month in search of the crescent, that is the Sunnah. If someone mistakenly reports seeing the moon in an area where the moon cannot be seen due to being below the Danjon limit, we can use the science we have to negate that as a possible sighting. And just because someone’s location on the Earth is in a zone where the moon will not be seen by the unaided eye again does not reduce the rewards of going out in search of it, where the intention is to fulfill the Sunnah. I have gone out SERIOUSLY for the last 20+ years on a monthly basis looking for the new moon, even on days when I knew I had no chance of seeing it. Keeping this Sunnah alive is tantamount to keeping the Prophet, peace be upon him, alive.
I hope this answers your questions.